A Detailed analysis of the Leading Parties and their chances (Part 1)

Source: http://eltasmw.blogspot.com/2009/04/detailed-analysis-of-leading-parties.html
Sunday, April 26, 2009

Blogger: Charles Odziwa
Blantyre Malawi

Bingu wa Mutharika & Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)

Analysts agree that there has not been any time since Malawi turned a multiparty democracy in 1993 that Malawians have had reason to be hopeful of a better future than during the time Bingu has been at the helm of government.

In comparison with Muluzi who ruled the country between 1994 and 2004, Bingu has achieved considerably in his first five year term in various key sectors. Malawi has not begged for food for the past five years, In fact, it has been able to donate food to other countries in Africa. The economy has been stable making the environment conducive to macro-investment. There has also been emphasis on micro-business growth through loans and empowerment of communities to take up industrial production to their scale. And for the first time in the history of this country, Malawi has joined the club of uranium mining nations in the world. Two weeks ago, Bingu commissioned a uranium mine in the North. The mine is expected to add at least 10 percent to the country’s GDP and could be a competitor to Malawi’s main foreign exchange earner tobacco whose fortunes have been on the decline for several years running. The IMF came to Malawi two weeks ago and said they were impressed with the way Malawi’s economy is ticking. An IMF official said in 2009, Malawi’s economy would grow by 6 percent beating the expected regional growth of 3 percent. Towards the end of last year, Malawi’s economy was pitted by the Economic Intelligence Unit as the world’s fastest growing economy.

Education infrastructure has been a feature of his government. So has been road infrastructure which has opened many rural areas, making travelling easier and enabling rural farmers to ferry their produce easily to better markets. Women are lesser being trampled upon now because of Bingu’s empowerment of them. There has been notable improvement in health sector with more infrastructure and incentives for health personnel which has seen a significant reduction in flight of nurses to countries outside Malawi for greener pastures.

He has also cracked down on corruption. There are still cases of corruption going on but the situation has not been as rampant as it was during the time of Muluzi. There has also been relative security for the citizens over the years.

It is on account of the achievements of his government that an opinion poll by one SADC regional body put Bingu way ahead of the rest. His margin of victory in the elections would not be filled even by those of UDF and MCP combined, according to the results by the body, Afro-Barometer.

Pitfalls

It is generally agreed that Bingu has been weak on rule of law. He has at times even questioned and rejected some of the decisions made by the courts, decisions that have not favoured his government. Some fear that given a majority in parliament, Bingu could step over the line and become repressive.

He is not the sort who likes compromises. In all the four previous budget session of parliament, his government side, a minority, has struggled to have the opposition approve the national budget. Not at one time did Bingu move to strike a deal with the opposition for them to change their heart on the budget. Instead, he would lambaste them in mass rallies as being inconsiderate. To a reasonable person, his stance was good anyway, considering the fact that on many such occasions, opposition was just intent on giving Bingu’s government a torrid time. And he has been receiving support from sections of the civil society in that regard. But the opposition has been using his toughness to discredit him.

In spite of his good policies and achievements, Bingu is not an eloquent speaker. His lack of verbal power in vernacular makes him unable to articulate his development agenda with such emotional, mass appeal. Some analysts describe this as his undoing because his rivals in the opposition are rabble rousers of sorts who can present even a senseless, vain point into an electoral weapon.

The coming together of MCP and UDF in an alliance against Bingu is a potential threat to his chances of retaining the presidency. He has dismissed the alliance, saying he will effectively deal with both on May 19.

To be posted tomorrow:
John Tembo & Bakili Muluzi
Malawi Congress Party/United Democratic Front