Source: http://eltasmw.blogspot.com/2009/04/detailed-analysis-of-leading-parties.html
Blogger: Charles Odziwa, Blantyre Malawi
John Tembo & Bakili Muluzi
Malawi Congress Party/United Democratic Front
Muluzi has given up on the presidential race after Malawi Electoral Commission blocked him on the ground that he ruled the country for the constitutional two five-year terms. In response, he has taken his party into an alliance with MCP. This is a formidable combination likely to unsettle Bingu. Muluzi has a large cult following from the South. Tembo has over the years been a cult-hero for the people in the Central region.
In fact, in the 2004 elections, Tembo just narrowly missed the presidency after acquiring a very large number of votes from the Central region where he comes from. His party went on to win the most seats in parliament. All MPs came from the region. Election is a game of numbers and going by this, combined voters behind Muluzi and those behind Tembo makes such a sum Bingu would not just wish away.
This is the major strength of the alliance so far.
The other strength is that both UDF and MCP have diehard supporters who follow their parties at all cost, whether with or without an agenda for the nation. This is the characteristic that Bingu’s DPP may not have. The rabble rousers in the alliance are likely to work up the illiterate classes of people. This is the likely spot where Bingu could lose ground. He is technocratic in his leadership and is likely to score highly on educated and knowledgeable people. But these are fewer. And often, these classes of people do not go to vote.
Pitfalls
Some say the alliance is not a threat to Bingu after all because even if Muluzi and Tembo agree on terms or on how they are going to share the cabinet positions after the elections, MCP will not honour the agreements.
Some UDF supporters see this as a wasteful alliance because they believe that what has been done will not serve the interest of the party. The point is that UDF will go to the elections without a candidate of its own and this could be a step closer to its death. This prospect is attributed to Muluzi greed to hold on to the reigns of the party even long before it was clear that he would be barred from standing. The followers argue that Muluzi should have then groomed somebody else to take over from him.
This measures the tough time that UDF has, in part to convince some sections of UDF supporters to vote for Tembo. Tembo is generally associated with the darkness of Malawi’s political past. For example, UDF has had an unflinching support from Mangochi, one of districts with the largest number of voters in the country. This is one of the areas Tembo would need so he could shore up his electoral support. Yet this is the district that heavily dislikes Tembo because of this: during the rule of the MCP, Henry Masauko Chipembere was treated by the government then as one of the rebels. When he fled to US, MCP herded everyone in Chipemebere’s Moto village to prison for the sins of their son. This has been a very huge scar on MCP’s political identity in the district. The alliance must convert such people across the country into voting for Tembo.
It is argued further that the alliance is up against a government that has fulfilled its campaign manifestos. The alliance does not seem to have an alternative to offer. High on the agenda is to just to remove Bingu, an objective coming out of power greed. This is explained further by the fact that the parties are coming together with no unified manifestos.
Their reliance on regional support is premised in the outcomes of the previous elections where people have voted for a candidate from their region. But analysts have cautioned on working on such mathematics as it might not be the case this time. DPP does not have a stronghold region. It is observed that it has a considerable presence in all the regions of the country, so it would win because of those pockets of support.
Perhaps, this comment by a voter in one of the dailies could sum up the spirit of the time.
“Any party would be threatened [by the alliance]. When a bunch of time wasters form an alliance, the strong one is shaken but not thrown off balance. It is a threat but not enough to overthrow Bingu. Even UDF and MCP know that Bingu is a strong guy. Imagine they have had to form an alliance.”
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